Foreign currency loans risk and methods of its reduction on the polish financial market

Abstract

In the last several years currency loans have become one of the most important source of financing of households and enterprises in Poland. They are particularly used for real estates investments, where their prevalent form is a forward mortgage. In practice currency loans are long-term obligations which create significant risks such as: foreign interest-rate risk, fx risk, and spread risk within a few dozen years. Such risks can strongly influence the stability of whole Polish banking sector as well as financial market in Poland. As currency loans are mostly used by households there are very limited ways of managing the mentioned kinds of risk. Because the share of currency loans is at present still dynamically increasing in the banking system, the aim of this paper is to characterize mentioned loans and to present their significance in Poland, as well as risks related to them. In the last several years currency loans have become one of the most important source of financing of households and enterprises in Poland. They are particularly used for real estates investments, where their prevalent form is a forward mortgage. In practice currency loans are long-term obligations which create significant risks such as: foreign interest-rate risk, fx risk, and spread risk within a few dozen years. Such risks can strongly influence the stability of whole Polish banking sector as well as financial market in Poland. As currency loans are mostly used by households there are very limited ways of managing the mentioned kinds of risk. Because the share of currency loans is at present still dynamically increasing in the banking system, the aim of this paper is to characterize mentioned loans and to present their significance in Poland, as well as risks related to them.

Na polskim rynku finansowym od kilku lat obserwowany jest szybki wzrost zadłużenia sektora niefinansowego w walutach obcych. Zjawisko to wynika przede wszystkim z dużego popytu na walutowe kredyty mieszkaniowe ze strony gospodarstw domowych. Kredyty te wiążą się z kilkoma istotnymi rodzajami ryzyka, które w długim horyzoncie czasowym od- działują zarówno na samych kredytobiorców, jak i na cały system bankowy. Klienci banków narażeni są m.in. na ryzyko kursowe, ryzyko stóp procentowych walut obcych oraz ryzyko marży kursowej. Wymienione rodzaje ryzyk mogą w trakcie okresu spłaty kredytów prze- kładać się na ryzyko kredytowe banków. Pomimo dominacji wśród gospodarstw domowych kredytów mieszkaniowych denominowanych w walucie szwajcarskiej, która uznawana jest za bardzo stabilną, długi okres kredytowania hipotecznego ogranicza możliwość precyzyjnego prognozowania wystąpienia ewentualnych zdarzeń zagrażających zdolności kredytowej pol- skich kredytobiorców, a tym samym stabilności polskiego systemu bankowego.