The longest one-man weather chronicle (1721–1786) by Gottfried Reyger for Gdańsk, Poland as a source for improved understanding of past climate variability

Abstract

In the paper we focus on the notes of botanist and meteorologist Gottfried Reyger on the weather conditions in Gdańsk, Poland. In our estimation, this chronicle, covering the period from December 1721 to June 1786 (the longest weather chronicle recorded by a single person), is a reliable source of information with the potential to contribute to the understanding of climate variability in 18th-century Gdańsk, the significant old Hanseatic city in northern Poland. The temperature and precipitation series for the period 1721–1786 were indexed against contemporary conditions using the calculated percentages of cold, normal and warm decades. The climate in the 18th century in Gdańsk was colder than nowadays; the springs were much cooler, as were the winters, while the summers were warmer. A few relatively cold periods and several warm periods were identified. The first half of the analysed period was very humid, whereas the second was quite dry. The reconstructed indexed data series were compared to annual and seasonal mean values of air temperature and precipitation derived from regular instrumental observations made in Gdańsk since 1739. The linear regression method was applied to calibrate the reconstructed index series against anomalies from the 1961–1990 average. The correlation coefficient, standard error of estimate and the root-mean-square error statistics were used to diagnose the quality of calibration and verification. The highest correlation between the temperature indices and the observational series was found for winter. The reconstructed series for precipitation has a smaller variability than in reality. The reconstructed values for the years prior to 1739 indicate cold years for 1725–1732 and a wet period in the 1730s.