The Issue of VAT Gap in Poland in Contrast to the European Union Member States as a Threat to Financial Security of the State

Abstract

According to the European Commission’s estimates Poland had one of the highest VAT gap among the EU countries in 2014, which amounted to PLN 40bn, i.e. 31.7% of actual collected VAT revenue, and the VAT gap in Poland increased in contrast to 2010 data (by almost 1/4). These estimates are in line with the deceleration of the VAT revenue growth in Poland since 2008 (in contrast to nominal GDP growth) and moderate Pearson’s correlation coefficient for the dependency between nominal GDP changes and nominal VAT revenue changes in Poland in the years 2003-2016 (chain base indices; r=0.47). The VAT gap is definitely higher in CEE11 countries than in EU15 – this is confirmed by all central tendency measures. The problem with tax collection effectiveness in the most EU countries is further complicated by the threats that are connected with the constant changes introduced to tighten up the tax system as they create additional uncertainty and complicate the situation in already complicated business environment.