Arabia Saudyjska i Iran – wybrane aspekty mocarstwowości

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze superpower potentials of Saudi Arabia and Iran. The analysis is aimed at finding the answer to the following research question: which of the states involved in the so-called ‘New Cold War’ in the Middle East – Saudi Arabia or Iran – fulfills to a greater extent the criteria for being qualified as a superpower? The hypothesis constructed on the basis of a research question anticipates that in case of combining Saudi Arabia’s and Iran’s superpower potentials, Riyadh appears to be a stronger actor, and thus, more capable of playing the role of a regional leader. In order to verify the research hypothesis, the superpower criteria formulated by A. Włodkowska were used, namely population and demographic, territorial (geopolitical), economic and technological, as well as military measures.

Transferring the results of the analysis into numerical values has enabled a positive verification of the research hypothesis. Comparing the current superpower potentials of both Riyadh and Tehran as well as taking into account their evolution trends lead to drawing a conclusion that Saudi Arabia outweighs its rival with regard to the potential for playing the role of a regional power. Not only does the Kingdom appear as the largest and most economically developed country in the region, but also an entity characterized by favorable and prospective both demographic and economic indicators, allocating the majority of the Middle Eastern actors to the modernization and expansion of the army.