Econometric Tools for Detection of Collusion Equilibrium in the Industry

Abstract

The article presents the notion of detection of overt or tacit collusion equilibrium in the context of choice of the appropriate econometric method, which is determined by the amount of information that the observer possesses. There has been shown one of the collusion markers coherent with an equilibrium of the proper model of strategic interaction – the presence of structural disturbances in the price process variance for phases of collusion and competition. The Markov Switching Model with switching of variance regimes has been proposed as a proper theoretical method detecting that type of changes without prior knowledge of switching moments. In order to verify the effectiveness of the method it has been applied to a series of lysine market prices throughout and after termination of its manufacturers’ collusion.